Episode 381: Email Answers for Your Friday
Date February 7, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer emails about an auction for playing time, Mike Trout’s plate approach, a contract that could kill baseball, and more. Topics * Auctioning off playing time or managerial spot * Projections and prospect evaluation * Mike Trout's plate approach * Baseball's doomsday contract Intro Auctioneer sound clip Banter Someone tweeted to Ben that they were surprised to found out he was thin based on only hearing his voice. Sam says Ben sounds "like a large boy". Email Questions * Chris: "How much would a team need to raise for the Jimmy Fund or similar charity to auction off a chance to start a regular season in the field? No hitting, just play left field or wherever. How much could one person off the street hurt over 1/2 an inning? Think of all the good that money could do: cure cancer, shelter the homeless, etc." * Dan: "One of the hallmarks of projection systems is regression. We typically don't forecast superlative numbers, not because they don't happen but because for any individual player they are unlikely. Projection systems tend to be ultra conservative. Contrast that with prospect evaluation, where guys are given 8 grades written up as a sure thing, forecasted to be all stars, etc. Prospect evaluations tend to vary but most are not hesitant to give out a wide range of scores despite actually having less objective data to go on. Any thoughts on this disparity? Should we tell ourselves that eight really means 'a little bit more likely to succeed', and that a projected 1st division all star means 'kinda might make the majors some day if he's lucky and things fall into place'? Or, should we tell ourselves that the projection systems are simply too conservative and that Chris Davis will probably hit 60 home runs?" * Bobby: "Getting back to the recommendation Sam gave a couple months ago Brooks Baseball player pages, are you guys surprised that Mike Trout's writeup on Brooks Baseball isn't a glowing endorsement?" * Paul: "Suppose a few years down the road Mike Trout signs with a team for 20 years and half a billion dollars. No opt-outs, no options, no benefits, he's just a half a billion dollar player. Content with being a half billionaire and more than set for life, he decides being good at baseball isn't that important. He shows up at the park every day and plays when he's in the lineup but basically phones it in. When he's called on he'll frolic over to any ball hit his way, etc. He doesn't care what his manager, teammates, or the media have to say on account of him being so rich. He does nothing explicitly wrong, per se, that would give the team who signs him grounds to invoke any clauses to void the contract for any misconduct, he just appears to have lost all ability and interest in playing the game. Is this a complete doomsday scenario for MLB? MLB's owners, player's association, fans, media would be communally disgusted by such a display but I suggest it would foster enough distrust in every party to seriously cloud the future of professional baseball as we know it." Notes * A different auctioneer sound clip was used to start Episode 29. * Ben guesses a $20 million donation would get someone MLB playing time. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 381: Email Answers for Your Friday Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes